Oil fell for a fourth day on Monday as a U.S. crude supply glut and a weakening economy in China weighed on prices. Brent, the global benchmark, dropped 11 cents to $47.31 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WYI), the U.S. benchmark slipped 45 cents to $43.84 a barrel.
Emerging-market currencies and stocks continued to slump as investors became increasingly convinced that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates in December, spurring concern that capital outflows from developing countries will worsen as domestic assets become less appealing. A gauge tracking 20 currencies in emerging markets fell 0.4 percent, weakening for a fourth day. The MSCI Emerging Market stock index dropped 1.2 percent to the lowest level in a month. In contrast, China’s benchmark Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.6 percent to an 11-week high amid the government’s plan to resume initial public offerings.
High Income Economies: The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development lowered global growth projections to 2.9 percent for 2015, progressively revising forecasts downwards from expectations a year ago of 3.7 percent growth. Global growth is projected to pick-up to 3.3 percent in 2016. The growth forecast for the U.S. is 2.4 percent in 2015 and 2016, while for the Euro Area it is 1.5 percent in 2015 and 1.8 percent in 2016.
The German current account rose to €25.1 billion in September, the highest level since March and ahead of expectations. Germany expects a record current-account surplus equivalent to more than 8.5 percent of GDP in 2015 and 2016. The trade surplus was also up slightly in September, reaching €22.9 billion, as exports grew by 4.4 percent (y/y) while imports rose 3.9 percent. Trade growth was led by increases within the European Union, while remaining sluggish with other countries.
Wages in Japan are gaining momentum, with labor cash earnings rising by 0.6 percent in September (y/y), compared with 0.4 percent in August and better than expectations. Wages were boosted by substantially higher bonuses, which were 14 percent higher than a year earlier.
East Asia and Pacific: Falling for the fourth straight month, China’s exports decreased 6.9 percent (y/y) in October, nearly doubling the 3.7 percent fall seen in September. Meanwhile, imports plunged 18.8 percent on weak domestic demand. Consequently, the trade surplus widened to a record $61.6 billion from $60.3 billion in September.
Europe and Central Asia: Turkey’s industrial production growth slowed to 2.8 percent (y/y) markedly in September, much slower than the 7.2 percent sharp climb in in August, figures from the Turkish Statistical Institute showed Monday. However, it was the eighth consecutive monthly increase. On a monthly basis, industrial production was flat in September after a 3.0 percent gain in August.
Sub-Saharan Africa: Consumer prices in Tanzania increased by 6.3 percent (y/y) in October, following a 6.1 percent increase in September and matching market expectations. Cost of food and accommodation grew at a faster pace, while transport prices fell slightly. Annual core inflation rate was recorded at 2.1 percent, from 2.2 percent in September.